Longtime Korea watchers are likely to do a double-take at the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, which carries an article by Victor Cha titled “North Korea as It Is.” In the article, Cha calls for the United States to “scrap the old approach … on denuclearization and an overreliance on sanctions.” Instead, Washington should focus on “[r]estarting talks with the goal of establishing cold peace”.
In an apparent break from decades of advocating a hawkish stance against North Korea, Cha now wants the United States to “encourage South Korea to tone down its aggressive deterrence strategy, such as Seoul’s ‘kill chain’ plan”, “naturally reduce the number of American troops” in South Korea, and acknowledge the fact that North Korea is “a proven nuclear weapons state that could retaliate against the United States and its allies.”
It is a remarkable about-face from the Georgetown University professor, who has long been the most authoritative voice on the Korean Peninsula in Washington. In no small irony, Cha concedes that his “new strategy” will invite the criticism that it “de facto accepts North Korea’s status as a nuclear state” - a criticism Cha himself spent years levying against engagement-oriented North Korea experts.
Belated as it may be, Cha’s change of stance betokens an irreversible shift in Washington consensus on North Korea. US president Donald Trump may yet rekindle his courtship of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un 김정은, as he did during his first term. Even after the Trump presidency passes, the inter-Korean relationship is likely to enter a new phase with a more realpolitik oriented United States.
